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At these odds, over a lot of stakes the Bettor is expected to lose money. This is essentially the opposite of Value Betting.
So odds on either outcome at greater than 2. For example, a price of 2. Granted this is a very simple example of value betting.
With Horse Racing, or indeed any other sport, calculating the chance of winning is much more difficult than a coin toss. This plays into the hands of the Value Bettor….
So how do they reduce that risk? Tails is the Value bet. The same concept applies in a Horse Racing context. Imagine that a top-rated tipster with a large audience recommends a horse to win the race.
Suddenly the Bookmaker receives an influx of volume on that selection. This creates an imbalance in the books, heavily weighted on this one particular horse.
Odds imply a chance, or probability, of an event occurring. This is to say that the odds of 2. Therefore the 2. The hardest thing to understand about value betting is that value can exist at any odds.
If you are confident that the probabilities that you calculate, or get from a prediction service are greater than the bookmaker's estimate, this kind of staking plan can produce positive results.
Typically it is not advisable to bet such a high percentage of the betting bank. You would have to be very confident of your predictions over confident perhaps.
In order to reduce the risk of betting too much of your betting bank, the Kelly staking plan uses something called the Kelly divider.
This provides flexibility allowing you to set your own risk level. The Kelly Divider usually uses a number from 4 to This number controls how quickly the betting bank will grow and reduces large fluctuations in the amount of money won and lost.
In the example we will use a divider of 7, which you can decrease as your confidence increases. The higher the Kelly Divider, the smaller the stake size.
To round up. This article is a good hopefully introduction to value betting. What we have not done here is to explain how to calculate probability estimates personally.
The process is tedious and time consuming. The ValuePunter processing system finds bets where there is a mathematical advantage for the punter.
The probability estimate is calculated using power ratings, statistical analysis and closely monitored team news. If you are looking value in your betting odds, Bet and Intertops can provide very competitive offers for all online betting markets.
If you would like to receive e-mail updates when we publish new betting tips or previews, please enter your email below. This approach uses mathematical principles of specialised database analysis.
Yes, it sounds kind of complicated and to be honest it is. People who work on identifying this kind of bet will usually have a deep knowledge of maths.
Rather, it is more likely that you rely upon an expert to do this for you. Value betting services will identify the bets that they think you should make.
Some will use this approach to do so. Of course, if you are a number cruncher extraordinaire you might use this way of identifying value bets.
It is an incredibly satisfying way of identifying bets if you have the skills needed to do it. Handicapping is another way of identifying worthwhile value bets.
It can only be done effectively by people who have a deep knowledge of a particular sport. They can then use this knowledge to good effect.
They put a numerical rating down for each team. This is then compared to the odds on offer. As mentioned, you need a specialised knowledge.
This means that you more likely to look at something specific. A good example comes with 3 year old handicapped horses. Can you find some that are underrated by the British Horse Racing authority?
Handicap races enable horses of varied ability to race competitively against each other. This is done by the allocation of weight.
The higher their handicap rating, the more weight a horse is required to carry. These ratings are set by the BHA.
What if you can spot horses that are underrated by the BHA? Then you have value betting possibilities. Since they are carrying less weight than they should be, they are able to run faster.
This means they have more chance of winning than their odds show. To make it work you need to narrow down your niche.
No one can expect to know enough about an entire sport to do this well enough. Money can only be made if you focus on a specific area.
Do you have very specialised knowledge of one area of a sport? If not, you might choose to pay for a service that find value bets in this way. This allows you to estimate the percentage chance of any given outcome happening.
You then place the bets with a bookmaker who has the highest odds. This needs to be a bookies offering off—market odds.
This is where you gain genuine value. If a bookie is out of step with the rest then there is an opportunity. First of all, who are these sharp bookmakers?
They are basically bookies who operate with tight margins. Any value is quickly mopped up astute users. If their odds were often incorrect, they would end up going bankrupt.
How could this system work in real life? A great example is when an unexpected change is announced just before a football match.
Imagine Manchester United announcing a key player is missing in the build-up to a game against Juventus. Punters are going to think that the chances of Juventus winning have just increased.
The bookies will think this too. Suddenly, the existing odds on offer are no longer completely accurate.
In this situation, the odds on Juventus winning are going to be cut. The sharp bookies are going to alter their odds automatically and swiftly.
However, some of the others have a manual process for changing their odds. This means that it can take them longer to react.
Juventus could stay at longer odds for a while. This needs to be just long enough for you to take advantage.
With these bookmakers, you can take advantage with value betting if they are slow in reacting. You can jump in and take odds that are higher than the true percentage change of them winning.
That is how you profit from value betting! You need to know where to look for these opportunities. Who exactly are the bookmakers with the sharpest odds?
The following are some of the main names to look out for. When there is a sudden shift due of new information, the bookies above will have the correct odds.
They move quickly to react to changes in the market. What if you see other bookies with odds that stand out as being different? These are probably the one that are ideal for value betting purposes.
From here on, we will focus on line grinding. This is because it is the easiest way to make money from value betting. What is the simplest form of value bet that you can find?
It can be where a bookmaker is offering higher odds than those available on Betfair. This can be done in a couple of different ways, really.
For instance, you could use a simple piece of arbitrage software. Alternatively, you could manually compare the odds. A quick check of the Arbitrage software throws up this horse racing bet — Podemis to win the Kempton.
We know that the odds of 7. You placed the bet at odds 8. It works out as a rating of Anything above is classed as a value bet.
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